2
- home
- Economy
Ulyana KUPNOVITSKAYA October 1, 2021 14:06 0
Photo: The treasury contains approximately 1,800 gold bars. Photo: NBU.
Guests are not invited to the holiday and are not treated to a golden loaf. But I really want to take a peek into this mysterious repository.
First arrivals in February 1992
Everyone has heard about the existence of a “gold reserve,” but few people have any idea what it looks like. Every country has its own precious stash, and Ukraine is no exception. But in comparison with the legendary Fort Knox (the military base where the US gold reserves are stored), our domestic reserves are more modest. Although there is no reason to be surprised - America has been accumulating gold for more than a hundred years, and Ukraine has been accumulating gold officially since 1991. And the first metal entered the treasury only in February 1992.
Today the treasury looks quite impressive - the racks with gold bars excite the imagination. Just one such “piece” could make someone a little rich. Let's dream? A villa in the Carpathians, a large apartment in the center of Kyiv, and instead of a tram - a black Bugatti. Now let’s return to earth, because precisely in order not to provoke people into a “gold rush”, the storage facility is closed for excursion visits.
But “KP” in Ukraine” was able to communicate with the director of the State Treasury of Ukraine Larisa Galyapa and at least plunge a little into the golden backstage of Ukraine.
Pay for debts
According to Andrey SHEVCHYSHIN, head of the analytics department of the financial company FOREX CLUB , gold and foreign exchange reserves act as a “safety cushion”, which is used when it is necessary to close the foreign trade deficit, ensure external payments on obligations, or restrain speculative attacks on the exchange rate. Therefore, the optimal level of gold reserves should be calculated based on these loads.
According to the IMF methodology, gold and foreign currency reserves should cover 3 months of net imports. If the indicator is below this level, the state is at high risk of default on its obligations; above it, everything is fine.
Today, the average monthly net import of goods and services is $5.8-6 billion. This means that according to this indicator, everything is fine.
The situation with debt load is similar. The ratio of government debt (currently $79 billion) to gold and foreign reserves is 26%. It is generally accepted that even 60% is a safe value.
The peak of payments will be in September, when Ukraine will have to pay more than UAH 55 billion of obligations, including $1.2 billion to the IMF. It is obvious that there will be enough funds to cover external obligations, at least until the end of this year, and if no force majeure events occur and the reserves are not used, for example, to contain the devaluation of the hryvnia, or for problems in Privatbank, then they will be enough next year.
However, not everyone believes that the accumulated reserves are enough to feel secure in the future. Some experts are inclined to think that we will have enough reserves to pay off the debts of the current year, and then it depends on what the situation in the country will be.
So, according to M. Parkhomenko, we are having great difficulty paying off our debts.
“The coverage of volumes exceeding annual imports by reserves is considered stable. Thus, our reserves should be higher than now, at least 3.5 times, and amount to $70 billion.” - says the expert.
M. Parkhomenko believes that the reserves will not be used to pay off debts. Most likely, the debt will be refinanced through the IMF or the issue of new bonds (the same as bonds. - Ed. ).
A. Okhrimenko also believes that the current reserves are not enough. According to his calculations, for the normal state of the Ukrainian economy, reserves need to be at the level of $40 billion, and we have had them at the level of $20 billion for two years now.
In addition, the expert recalls that out of 20.64 billion dollars, only 10 billion dollars are “pure international and foreign resources” (excluding loan funds).
“ Clean ones are more important to us , because they can be used to pay off debts. The money we borrowed cannot be used to repay other loans,” says A. Okhrimenko.
And V. Shapran believes: what the MVR will be depends on many factors. The final scenario for the development of events will depend on whether Ukraine remains in the IMF program, on grain harvest prices in 2021, the stability of the political situation after the parliamentary elections, etc.
Ingot 12.5 kilos
The Treasury as a division of the National Bank of Ukraine appeared 27 years ago, and until that time Ukraine had no gold reserves. This is not Alaska or the Wild West here, and there is nowhere to extract the precious metal.
“Therefore, our reserve is replenished mainly through purchases from other countries and processing of scrap jewelry from pawnshops and banks,” says Larisa Galyapa.
So if you pawned your engagement ring ten years ago, chances are it's been converted into bullion.
With his personal gold, a simple man in the street can do whatever he wants - either turn it into a golden loaf, or cover the toilet with gold plating.
“But within the walls of the treasury there are strict standards, and you won’t find ingots in the shape of a ball or a triangle, it’s not allowed.” Only - a trapezoidal shape, and the exact weight is 12.5 kg (400 troy ounces), and each of them is of the highest standard - 999.5,” explains our interlocutor.
Gold bars are stacked in pyramids and stored on open, numbered racks. In order to quickly count, weigh or check if someone sawed off a corner from a precious piece. True, only the “chosen ones” - those responsible for storing these treasures - have access to the mesmerizing pyramids.
Where did the gold of Ukraine go?
One of the signs of the presence of a strong state in a particular country is its gold reserves. Bullions, monetary gold.
In Russia, the current volume of corresponding reserves is 2 thousand 252 tons. The United States states that today it has over 8 thousand tons of yellow metal in storage (an absolute record). The Bundesbank of Germany is one and a half thousand tons. The British and Americans keep the same amount of German gold in their stashes. How much has Ukraine saved for itself? The history of the Kyiv gold state reserves is an unimaginable mixture of three genres: fantasy, farm operetta and crime drama.
It all started back in June 1990. At that time, the capital of the Ukrainian SSR was eagerly awaiting the visit of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. At the Bessarabian market, traders gossiped: they say, Thatcher “give us independence.” Mikhail Gorbachev, completely confused in his own “new thinking,” was no longer taken into account then.
The main republican newsmaker was the Ukrainian-language poet and local amateur local historian Vladimir Tsybulko. He said that in November 1723, hetman Pavel Polubotok, secretly from Peter the Great, transferred 200 thousand gold coins at 7.5% per annum to British banks (Lloyd Bank and the Bank of the East India Company). Polubotok allegedly bequeathed gold and interest to the future independent Ukraine. Tsybulko has already calculated that in the event of separation from the USSR and the creation of an independent state, each Ukrainian will receive as much as 38 kilograms of the precious metal.
“Now let’s panic!..”
In the Great Russian language of the 18th century, a common proverb was in circulation: “A Russian is more cunning than the devil, but stupider than a crow.” Of course, it is not worth generalizing it widely, but this is a devastatingly accurate description of both Vladimir Tsybulko and all those who believed him.
Thatcher wagged in Kyiv, smiled falsely and persistently avoided talking about future independence and the gold of Hetman Polubotok. After Ukraine declared its independence in 1991, special delegations began to appear in London.
One of them was even headed by a serious party apparatchik and certified historian, deputy of the former Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR, Pyotr Tronko. Alas, simplicity is enough for every wise man. As one might expect, no documents about Polubotok’s gold were found in English banks.
Tsybulko’s lie about 38 kilograms of gold per capita remains a lie. The people of Ukraine had to work hard for the newly created state to acquire its own gold reserves.
By the end of 2013, Ukraine’s last relatively well-fed year, Kiev managed to accumulate 42 tons and 300 kilograms of pure gold. This is the indisputable merit of Viktor Yanukovych and Mykola Azarov. And then... Then the Maidan broke out. Outright temporary workers came to power - Turchinov and Yatsenyuk. Local media was full of sensational materials of this kind:
“One night, at the end of February 2014, a plane with Ukraine’s gold reserves took off from Boryspil airport in the United States. According to Boryspil staff, four cash-in-transit vehicles and several minibuses arrived at the airport before this. At the same time, all arriving vehicles did not have license plates.
About 15 people in black uniforms, masks and bulletproof vests got out of the cars. Some of them were armed with machine guns. These people loaded some heavy boxes onto the plane... Later, one of the senior officials of the former Ministry of Revenue and Duties called the editorial office, who said that, according to his information, tonight, by order of one of the “new leaders” of Ukraine (either Turchynov , or Yatsenyuk) part of the gold reserves of the state of Ukraine (and possibly the entire reserve) was exported to the United States ... "
Of course, the reliability of such media stories involving anonymous sources tends to zero. However, it is logical to assume that the price for assistance “in the liberation of Ukraine from centuries-old Moscow slavery” was the transfer of monetary gold for storage to the US Federal Reserve. The disappearance scandal broke out only in November. That is, a full eight months after the Maidan and those well-founded fears for the safety of gold that it awakened...
The head of the Ukrainian National Bank, Valeria Gontareva, said that there should be eight (!) times more gold in the vaults than there actually is.
“There are some gold bars left, but it’s literally one percent of the country’s total gold and foreign exchange reserves,” she said. It turns out that at that time the total volume of Ukrainian gold decreased to 5 tons 200 kilograms.
However, this did not stop Poroshenko from declaring that Ukraine’s gold reserves remain at 24.3 tons... But who believed Poroshenko and when? His former comrade-in-arms on Maidan, war criminal Saakashvili, at one time awarded Pyotr Alekseevich an absolutely fair nickname - “huckster”.
American political strategists call what is happening in Ukraine today “controlled chaos.” True, their multi-page reports and recommendations always have a small footnote printed in the smallest font... The meaning is this: “Chaos still remains chaos. He always tends to become uncontrollable. In this case, the United States is obliged to withdraw in advance not only its assets, but also the assets of the “threatened country in order to cover its own costs of introducing the universal principles of American democracy in this threatened country...”
So, let’s assume that Poroshenko still had 5 tons 200 kilograms of Yanukovych’s former state gold. What next happened to this monetary treasure? Let's compare some dates and facts...
On February 16, 2021, Donald Trump signs documents on the allocation of almost $700 million, allegedly for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The money goes to Kyiv (read, personally to Poroshenko and his proxies).
On February 25, the destroyer Donald Cook urgently arrives at the port of Odessa. The next day, on board Poroshenko talks about something with Trump’s then personal representative Kurt Volker. "Donald Cook" accepts some mysterious boxes into its cargo compartments, which does not escape the eyes of Odessa residents. The city is excited by rumors about some “golden boxes”...
On February 27, the destroyer quickly set sail and headed for the Bosphorus. All hypocritical shows simulating American-Ukrainian friendship and military brotherhood are mercilessly cancelled. The warship is carrying out an urgent mission of particular importance, and the crew is in a terrible hurry...
What do you need to pay attention to here? In the amount of “almost $700 million,” sent to Kyiv 9 days before the visit of the destroyer Donald Cook. One ton of gold costs 40 million dollars in the United States today. 5.2 tons that Poroshenko had at his disposal is more than 200 million. Then it turns out that one third of Trump’s military assistance to the outgoing regime of Peter Alekseevich was provided by state gold bullion.
Normal practice in relations with junior and not very reliable partners of the United States. It only turns out that the Americans have already swept all Ukrainian gold reserves clean. Then it’s clear why Poroshenko has not yet been arrested (he knows too much).
It is clear why Zelensky did not make a single statement about the condition in which he accepted the National Bank’s gold vaults. Today, the gold of Ukraine is the same myth as the gold of Hetman Polubotok.
The National Bank of Ukraine still claims that it has monetary gold totaling $1 billion 180 million - more than 20 tons. But where do they come from, these fabulous tons? After all, there are no new arrivals. Systematic development of gold deposits is completely absent, geological exploration is not carried out, and predicted reserves are not protected. The only site with confirmed resources, the Muzhievsky mine (Transcarpathia), was sold to the American company.
So, where is your gold, Ukraine?
Apparently, you have nothing. And what was there has already emigrated overseas...
There is such a job - rubbing gold
How come the gold is not sealed in special plastic? “KP” in Ukraine” wrote: gold bars should not be kept in your desk, but in special packaging.
— Such requirements do not apply to gold in the reserve. There are specific people who are ultimately responsible for the treasures themselves and for their appearance - they bear financial responsibility,” says Larisa Galyapa.
But based on everything we have heard, it becomes clear: the main tasks of the treasury workers (this is not one person, but entire special teams) are to wipe off the dust in a timely manner and sometimes count the ingots. Just a dream job!
Reasons for the growth of reserves
This month, Ukraine's international reserves increased to $20.64 billion. Let us recall that, according to the NBU, as of June 1, Ukraine's international reserves were at the level of $19.4 billion. That is, there is an increase of 6.4%.
debts Photo: AiF in Ukraine
It is worth noting that in world practice the traditional concept of “gold and foreign exchange reserves” has been replaced by the term “international reserves”. International Monetary Reserves (IMR) are presented in the form of monetary gold, foreign currency and government securities denominated in these currencies, and may also include balances in accounts with international organizations. MVRs are calculated in US dollars.
The NBU explained that international reserves increased due to the government’s placement of Eurobonds worth 1 billion euros and the National Bank’s purchase of foreign currency on the interbank market. In addition, in June, the Ministry of Finance raised $1.6 billion from the placement of domestic and external government loan bonds (OVGZ).
Also, the increase in international reserves was influenced by the favorable situation for Ukrainian exports on world markets and the relatively low volumes of imports of goods into Ukraine.
“These factors caused the supply of currency to exceed demand and allowed the National Bank to replenish international reserves through interventions (selling or purchasing large volumes of currency. - Ed. ) in the interbank foreign exchange market by $322.3 million,” the NBU emphasized.
The NBU named another reason for the growth in the volume of international reserves as the revaluation of currency values included in the reserves. This, according to the regulator, increased the volume by $254.6 million.
“When a currency is included in the MVR, it is taken into account at the official rate on the date of enrollment, and everything is calculated in US dollars. But if the dollar exchange rate has changed, then it is recalculated to the reporting date. They do the same with the price of gold,” explains Alexander OKHRIMENKO, president of the Ukrainian Analytical Center.
However, not all experts consider the current indicators an achievement. Thus, Maxim PARKHOMENKO, an analyst at the financial company Alpari, says: it is important to take into account that since January of this year, the MVR has dropped by 4%, and now, in fact, it has reached its old values. It is difficult to call such dynamics growth.
A. Okhrimenko argues in approximately the same way. According to him, in fact, the level of reserves has returned to the level at the beginning of this year. We can say that the growth in reserves covered this year's expenses, but there is no growth for the future.
Nevertheless, we are still ahead of the growth forecast made by the NBU last year. Thus, according to the chief expert of the NBU Council, Vitaly SHAPRAN, in 2021, the NBU inflation report provided for a reduction in the MVR in 2021 and 2021 (the forecast for the level of reserves for 2021 was reduced to 18.6 billion dollars from 18 .8 billion, for 2021 - up to 19.1 billion from $19.7 billion). Therefore, the current state of affairs should be perceived as the formation of a reserve before a series of payments on external debt. It’s good that such a reserve has been created.
Growth prospects
Based on the current situation, we need to continue to increase the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We still have to work on this, and there is room to grow.
In order for MIR to grow, the country should develop production and the economy, and increase the level of GDP. This will allow increasing the volume of MVR.
We also need to improve economic processes in the country. This will indicate the prospect of stable development of the state. It is possible to simply replenish gold and foreign currency reserves with new debt obligations “for show,” but this only creates the appearance of stability for receiving the next IMF tranches.
M. Parkhomenko believes that for the growth of gold and foreign exchange reserves, it is important for Ukraine to increase the volume of exports and increase foreign exchange earnings. The expert also advises reducing the volume of imports (in particular, natural gas), replacing it with our own.
A. Shechishin proposes to ensure an increase in gold reserves by increasing exports and exceeding imports, purchasing surplus foreign currency from the population, increasing investment in the country and credit funds, and through economic growth. Also, in his opinion, it is necessary to open the land market - this will provoke an investment boom, in which the inflow of currency will exceed the potential outflow.
Victoria KHAJIRADEVA
